SAN FRANCISCO, CA --- It’s not a perfect correlation.
Could the recent spike in the Dow Jones Industrial average (“the Dow”) off its June bottom portend the November elections.
I averaged two Obama-friendly polls – the NBC and Gallup polls --- and graphed them based on monthly numbers. The Dow Jones Industrial monthly average samplings are pictured on the second graph.
Again, there’s no direct correlation. But as Obama’s
numbers started dropping the Dow began rising. Note that both starting
tanking as the health care battle reached its climax in this summer.
There’s been a definite rise in the Dow and other major indices in the last six weeks. Could the markets be quietly cheering the predicted end of near absolute Democrat control over Congress.
Well let’s just call it a coincidental.
But investors – and I mean both those greedy Wall Street sharks as well as small American families with pension funds or mutual funds – haven’t had much to celebrate during the last two years.
The Democrat Congress and White House have failed to jump start the economy. There's been no major job growth to replace seven million lost jobs. Meanwhile, the Democrat Congress and the President’s $1.7 trillion debt through borrowed funds has help stymie bank lending, especially to small business.
Second, the health care bill with its new regulations and mandates has spread confusion among small business owners and entrepreneurs. Small businesses creates most of the new jobs in America.
Then there’s the tax rates which the Democrat Congress has never got around to raising -- but warned us that they would.
Investors smell a big victory for the opposition in this November’s elections. The veto proof, filibuster-proof Congress will be a thing of the past. I believe that the Dow’s recent rise off the 9,700 bottom reflects this optimism.
In the end, the Dow Jones Industrial average, is a just a measure of sentiment. That sentiment has clearly turned more positive as the President’s approval ratings have dropped.
The polls are based on scientific sampling. We’ll see how accurate the Dow is in predicting the November elections.